The term Balkanization originates from the historical and political developments in the Balkans, a region in Southeastern Europe, where the complex interplay of national, ethnic, and religious identities has led to the breakup of larger political entities into smaller, often more fragmented ones.Historically, the Balkans saw the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent collapse of Yugoslavia, both of which led to the emergence of new, smaller nations. The ethnic and religious divisions in these areas fueled nationalistic tensions, contributing to violent conflicts, such as the Yugoslav Wars In the 1990s.

Balkanization Symbolizes the disintegration of larger political entities into smaller, often contentious states, resulting in increased instability, economic challenges, and sometimes violent conflict. Although it originally referred to the Balkans, the term has since been used more broadly to describe similar processes elsewhere, particularly in Europe or any region where ethnic, national, or religious groups push for autonomy or independence.

In its post-modern discussions, the Balkanization of Europe can refer to the political fragmentation of the European Union or Europe itself, where tensions between countries or regions might lead to more divisions (e.g., Brexit, secessionist movements in Catalonia, Scotland, etc.)—secondly, ethnic and national divisions within countries where minority groups demand independence or autonomy lead to destabilization.

In the context of the Balkanization of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh finds itself in a complex position due to its geopolitical and economic dynamics. While Bangladesh is a unified nation and enjoys a stable, harmonious society today, it faces many internal and external challenges that could contribute to its vulnerability to regional fragmentation if not addressed in time.

Potential Balkanization Threat Posed By the Arakan Army

TheArakan Army is now a reckonable armed ethnic militia group based in Rakhine State (formerly Arakan) in western Myanmar (Burma). It is primarily composed of ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and has been involved in a long-running conflict with the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw). The group aims to gain greater autonomy or self-determination for the Rakhine people in Myanmar. The potential disintegration danger posed by the Arakan Army refers to the risk that the group's actions could lead to further fragmentation or instability within Myanmar, particularly in a context already marked by ethnic and political tensions.Here are some key factors that are likely to trigger the potential risk of Balkanization of the region posed by the Arakan Army:

Ethnic Tensions and Separatism

Myanmar is home to a large number of ethnic groups, many of whom have their distinct languages, cultures, and histories. The Rakhine people are one of these groups, and they have historically sought greater autonomy or independence from the central government, which is dominated by the Bamar majority.The Arakan Army's demands for self-determination for the Rakhine people could inspire similar separatist movements among other ethnic groups, potentially leading to more significant fragmentation of the state.

Myanmar already has several other ethnic armed organizations (e.g., the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), and the Shan State Army (SSA), some of which seek independence or greater autonomy. If these movements were to gain strength, it could increase the risk of widespread disintegration of the country into multiple independent or semi-independent regions.

Tatmadaw’s Response and Escalation of Conflict

The Tatmadaw has an extensive history of violent repression against ethnic armed groups and has been accused of committing human rights abuses, including attacks on civilians, arbitrary arrests, and forced displacement and disappearance. This brutality has often escalated conflicts, increasing popular support for separatist groups like the Arakan Army.The Tatmadaw’s heavy-handed tactics could further alienate ethnic minorities and lead to a broader insurrection, deepening divisions between the central government and various ethnic regions.Such a prolonged conflict, mainly if it spreads to other regions, could weaken Myanmar’s national cohesion and increase the risk of the country disintegrating into smaller, more ethnically homogenous regions or even multiple independent states.

Regional Instability

Rakhine State is strategically located and economically promising, bordering Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal, making it a sensitive region geopolitically. Any large-scale conflict or disintegration in Myanmar could spill over into neighboring countries, especially Bangladesh, which already faces challenges with the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN)—Rohingya refugee crisis.The Arakan Army's activities have already destabilized Myanmar’s borders, posing more significant threats that would lead to cross-border conflicts or encourage other insurgent groups in neighboring regions to act more aggressively.

International Dynamics

Myanmar’s internal conflicts, including those involving the Arakan Army, have attracted significant international attention. The strategic interests of growing superpowers like China and regional power India in Myanmar could further complicate the situation. Their overt or covert support or opposition to different factions could influence the course of events. Furthermore, if the situation worsens, the international community, including the United Nations and the ASEAN, might become more involved. This could lead to foreign intervention or diplomatic pressure to resolve the crisis, which could further undermine Myanmar’s sovereignty.

Rohingya Crisis and Broader Ethnic Conflict

It may be argued that the Arakan Army’s conflict is closely tied to the Rohingya issue, as both the Arakan Army and the Tatmadaw have been involved in the broader violence against the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine State. The brutal treatment of the Rohingya by the Tatmadaw has led to a large exodus of refugees fleeing to Bangladesh, creating security concerns not only for Bangladesh but generating further destabilizing effects in the region.The disintegration of Myanmar could exacerbate the Rohingya crisis. If the Arakan Army succeeds in attaining the strategic objective in the true sense of the military and political term, the dynamics of ethnic and religious conflict could spiral out of control and out of geographical confines.

Potential for all-out Civil War

If the Arakan Army and other ethnic groups in Myanmar continue to challenge the central government of Myanmar, the country could face a prolonged civil war, where multiple groups vie for control over territory. The fragmentation of authority and the weakening of state institutions would make it difficult for Myanmar to maintain territorial integrity and national unity.This could also lead to the emergence of new political entities or quasi-independent regions, further undermining Myanmar’s central government and increasing the likelihood of disintegration.

Given the aforementioned comments and concerns, here are some suggestions for Bangladesh's leadership to contemplate and decide without wasting time regarding the country’s role and approach in such a scenario:

Strengthening National Unity and Cohesion

Bangladesh is predominantly Bengali-speaking and ethnically homogenous. Here live people of different races, religions, and cultures pleasantly since time immemorial. Efforts and initiatives must go on not to allow fifth columnist and yellow journalism to let Rohingya refugees from Myanmar— the FDMN and others artificially feel abused or marginalized. All stones must be turned to facilitate the FDMN's honorable and safe return to their homeland where they belong to. Besides, protecting the rights of all Bangladeshi citizens and promoting inclusive governance would surely bolster Bangladesh’s national unity and internal cohesion. Bangladesh should strengthen its national identity by focusing on justice, shared values, historical narratives, and cultural unity to mitigate the risk of any separatist or autonomy-seeking evil design before vested corners within its borders even conceive them.

Managing the Rohingya Crisis

The ongoing FDMN refugee crisis is one of the significant cross-border issues in the Bay of Bengal. If the situation worsens, Rohingya insurgent movements or separatist activities could potentially destabilize Bangladesh’s borders, especially in the southeastern region. Bangladesh must address this humanitarian crisis diplomatically, working with various stakeholders, including Myanmar, ASEAN, and the UN, to prevent it from escalating into a regional conflict.Efforts to do justice to theFDMN, as mentioned above, while addressing their rights and needs, should remain a priority to avoid the escalation of separatist demands that could further destabilize the region.

Regional Diplomacy and Strategic Alliances

Bangladesh should pursue diplomatic initiatives, utilizing its geostrategic proximity and keeping its geoeconomic interest in focus to manage and strengthen its geopolitical relationships with neighboring countries and associations. Bangladesh must walk the extra mile to join ASEAN and revive SAARC. It must revisit its foreign policy dictum of “Friendship to all and Malice towards none” to a more realistic one based on realism and realpolitik. Bangladesh’s territorial integrity is non-negotiable, and thus, while safeguarding against external pressures must remain vigilant not to become a party to the Balkanization process unwittingly.

Maintaining Maritime and Territorial Integrity

The Bay of Bengal is a geopolitically sensitive region, a gateway to the Indian Ocean, and a springboard for the Indo-Pacific Strategy with strategic waterways,chokepoints, oil and gas reserves, and fishing zones. Bangladesh must defend its maritime boundaries and secure its economic interests by strengthening its naval capabilities and diplomatic relations with all the Bay of Bengal countries.

Economic Integration and Cooperation

Bangladesh's blue economy (i.e., marine resources, fishing, trade routes, etc.) in the Bay of Bengal offers opportunities and challenges. Investment in sustainable development and economic cooperation could mitigate economic disparities that might otherwise contribute to regional fragmentation.Economic instability could fuel nationalist or separatist sentiments, compromising Blue Security. To prevent this, Bangladesh should focus on enhancing its economic ties with friendly countries across the globe through trade agreements, investment, and infrastructure development.

Countering Extremist Movements

In the context of the Bay of Bengal, the rise of extremist ideologies or insurgent movements could become a destabilizing factor. Bangladesh should invest in counterterrorism strategies and intelligence-sharing with regional neighbors and extra-regional partners to prevent the spread of extremist ideologies irrespective of religious affiliations, which could further fuel fragmentation and conflict.Promoting political stability through effective governance, the rule of law, and anti-extremism policies is critical to preventing the rise of separatist or militant groups that could challenge the state’s unity.

Strengthening Good Governance and Decentralization

While Bangladesh is a unitary state, decentralizing and balancing power among the three branches of the state could mitigate tensions and allow for more responsive and responsible governance. Building trust in the state’s institutions that have been corrupted over the last fifteen years of fascism through better governance, transparency, and anti-corruption efforts can reduce dissatisfaction, thus preventing any evil plots for fragmentation.

Mitigating the Risk of Maritime Conflicts

With competing interests in the Bay of Bengal’s maritime resources, Bangladesh should focus on international legal frameworks such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to assert its rights. Avoiding military conflict in the Bay of Bengalis essential. Cooperative maritime security efforts and even making a viable security alliance could also ensure that Bangladesh’s maritime interests in the Bay of Bengal and beyond remain secure and stable.

To conclude, the Arakan Army has almost succeeded in posing a formidable potential disintegration risk to Myanmar due to its role in exacerbating ethnic cleansing and political divisions, challenging the authority of the central government in all elements of its national power and fueling separatist sentiments. While the situation is highly volatile, uncertain, complex, and also ambiguous, the growing conflict in Rakhine State and the involvement of other ethnic armed groups could ultimately lead to further fragmentation of Myanmar, especially if the central government fails to address the concerns of ethnic minorities, repatriation rights of the FDMN and if external actors are allowed to be more involved to add to the fire of the Balkanization.

In a scenario of potential regional Balkanization, Bangladesh must fortify its national unity while strengthening regional cooperation to prevent the Bay of Bengal from descending into fragmentation. By addressing various domestic concerns, prioritizing economic development, positively engaging with international allies and partners, preparing the defense forces,safeguarding its land borders and maritime areas of interest, and promoting proactive diplomacy, Bangladesh must overcome its small state security dilemma to play a central role as a middle power in maintaining stability in the region. Bangladesh must also avoid being trapped or drawn into the Balkanization process. It is to ensure its relevance in the comity of nations, prospering in freedom, and to bear the torch to maintain peaceful coexistence in an integrated Bay of Bengal region defying Balkanization.


Writer: Commodore Syed Misbah Uddin Ahmad, (C), NUP, ndc, afwc, psc, BN (retd), Director General, Bangladesh Institute of Maritime Research and Development (BIMRAD). Email: misbah28686@gmail.com