"A small state is not powerless if it understands its geography, its history, and its choices"
— Paraphrased from S Mahmud Ali, Understanding Bangladesh
Entering the post-monsoon phase
The 2024 "Monsoon Revolution" did not merely change a government; it redirected the nation's moral and strategic course. It signalled a collective rejection of authoritarian stagnation.
It rekindled an aspiration deeply embedded in Bangladesh's political psyche: the pursuit of genuine sovereignty—sovereignty that safeguards national interests, upholds dignity, and allows independent decision-making.
Episodes One to Three demonstrated how Bangladesh's political history—covering the Partition, the Liberation War, and the shift from military rule to fragile civilian governments—has been shaped by both external influences and internal conflicts. Episode Four heralds a new phase in which Bangladesh should adopt a strategic vision rather than merely react to crises.
Here, the insights of "Understanding Bangladesh" (Ali 2010) are crucial. Ali argues that a state's survival depends not on rhetoric but on its ability to objectively assess regional forces, seize opportunities, and maintain autonomy in a competitive environment. For Bangladesh, this means shaping a foreign policy that is neither haunted by the traumas of 1971 nor subordinate to modern great-power rivalries.
One area where such recalibration is crucial is Bangladesh's stance towards Pakistan — not as a validation of past grievances, but as part of a deliberate re-evaluation of the region's evolving geopolitics. The aim is not emotional reconciliation; it is strategic foresight. This final segment concentrates on what Bangladesh should now develop, not what it should avoid.
The sovereignty imperative: Comprehending Bangladesh's strategic dilemma
Structural factors have consistently constrained Bangladesh's sovereignty. Its geography—trapped between India's dominant influence, dependent on transboundary rivers, bordering a volatile Myanmar, and located near some of the world's busiest sea lanes—creates inherent vulnerabilities, according to Ali's "Understanding Bangladesh" and Willem van Schendel's "History of Bangladesh" (2009).
Periods of domestic authoritarianism further expanded the scope for external influence, sometimes at the expense of national interest through patronage-based foreign alignments.
Bangladesh must now decisively move away from this dependency mindset. As Ali emphasises, sovereignty is not a fixed attribute granted once at independence but an evolving state that must be defended, negotiated, and recalibrated in every era.
It requires constant vigilance against external pressures, disciplined management of internal vulnerabilities, and strategic vision to expand Bangladesh's political and economic space within an increasingly unpredictable regional environment. Sovereignty, in this sense, is less an achievement than a continuous practice—one that Bangladesh must now pursue with greater confidence, coherence, and purpose.
“The question is no longer whether Bangladesh deserves strategic independence; it is whether it can afford not to exercise it.”
The Indo-Pacific's evolving multipolarity presents both challenges and opportunities. Bangladesh cannot afford to remain strategically passive. It must tackle its vulnerabilities by strengthening institutions, maintaining consistent policies, enhancing maritime capabilities, and exercising independent judgment.
The post-Monsoon leadership must therefore develop the qualities necessary for small-state survival in a contested region: strategic equidistance, operational patience, principled flexibility, and a deep understanding of geopolitical currents.
Why strategic reassessment is necessary
Bangladesh's foreign policy should be anchored in three enduring interests:
1. Security of the state and its people
2. Economic resilience, diversification, and access to markets
3. Autonomous decision-making in external relations
These interests mostly converge in the Indo-Pacific. As major powers compete for influence, infrastructure, and strategic space, Dhaka must proactively protect its maritime lifelines, Blue Economy, sea lanes, and industrial corridors.
Historical experiences with external dominance—whether during Pakistan's rule or periods of asymmetric dependence after 1971—deliver a single, clear lesson: sovereignty cannot be outsourced.
Echoing Kenneth Waltz's words in the "Theory of International Politics" (1979), states navigate the international system based on structural pressures and strategic interests — not emotional memory. Bangladesh today possesses the economic weight, geopolitical relevance, and maritime potential to act with greater autonomy. The question is no longer whether Bangladesh deserves strategic independence; it is whether it can afford not to exercise it.
The Pakistan question: Why reassessing is not revisionism
A mature foreign policy differentiates between historical truth, a temporary pause, and strategic necessity. Bangladesh must face 1971 with unwavering moral clarity. However, foreign policy cannot remain permanently halted after a traumatic event while the region experiences significant shifts in geopolitics and geostrategy.
The strategic alliances between the USA and Vietnam, the USA and Japan, or even France and Germany are clear examples of transforming enmity into renewed strategic partnerships. Therefore, a strategic assessment of Pakistan—carefully calibrated and based on national interests—offers several benefits.
· Geopolitical complementarity
Pakistan occupies a strategic role in the western Indo-Pacific region. It remains a key element in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), one of the most ambitious connectivity projects in Eurasia. For Bangladesh, engaging with Pakistan through careful diplomatic and economic actions broadens strategic options amid increasing great-power rivalry.
Enhanced operational connectivity—whether via trade routes, energy supplies, or diplomatic efforts—provides Dhaka with valuable flexibility in managing relations with India, China, and the Gulf states. Rather than signalling alignment, this complementarity strengthens Bangladesh's ability to diversify strategic partnerships, reduce overdependence on any single actor, and pursue an independent foreign policy rooted in national interests and long-term geoeconomic goals.
· Economic and energy diversification
Despite shared histories and compatible industrial profiles, Bangladesh's trade flows with several regional partners—particularly Pakistan, Central Asian states, and Gulf economies—remain limited.
However, significant opportunities exist. Bangladesh's strengths in textiles, ready-made garments, jute products, leather goods, and pharmaceuticals can access untapped markets in West and Central Asia, while energy cooperation—ranging from LNG sourcing to joint ventures in renewables—provides avenues for long-term resilience.
Connectivity initiatives linking Central Asia to the Bay of Bengal, whether through multimodal transport or emerging digital corridors, create additional prospects for diversification beyond traditional partners. Expanding these economic and energy linkages would not only widen Bangladesh's strategic options but also reduce vulnerability to supply shocks and the risks associated with monopoly arising from overdependence on a single external market.
· Defence diplomacy and professionalism
Pakistan's longstanding reputation as a key contributor to UN peacekeeping missions—paired with its extensive experience in counterinsurgency, military logistics, and defence industrial production—presents Bangladesh with an opportunity for carefully calibrated, interest-driven military diplomacy, writes Steven Wilkinson in "Army and Nation: The Military and Indian Democracy since Independence" (2015).
Focused institutional exchanges in areas such as peacekeeping operations, military education, naval doctrine development, and defence technology assessment could significantly boost Bangladesh's professional capacity while fully maintaining its strategic independence.
Additionally, selective cooperation in defence industries—covering small-arms standardisation, joint research on low-cost maritime platforms, and indigenous aircraft—may help Bangladesh diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on single-source procurement.
Such engagements would not signify alignment but would demonstrate a confident, sovereign foreign policy—one in which Bangladesh chooses partnerships that strengthen its institutions, modernise its armed forces, and reinforce its role as a responsible, capable, and increasingly influential middle-power in the Indo-Pacific.
· Islamic world diplomacy
A stable, functional working relationship with Pakistan bolsters Bangladesh's diplomatic influence across the Islamic world, especially within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), where coordinated positions often shape collective responses on humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical matters. Improved engagement also increases Bangladesh's leverage in Middle Eastern strategic issues—whether in labour markets, energy security, investment flows, or Defence cooperation with key Gulf partners.
Importantly, this is not a call for strategic alignment or ideological closeness, but for strategic maturity. A sovereign Bangladesh must assess Pakistan, as it does any other state, based on national interest, economic opportunity, and geopolitical utility, rather than on unresolved emotional narratives. Such an approach enhances Bangladesh's independence and improves its capacity to influence outcomes in the wider Muslim diplomatic arena.
Building a middle-power maritime Bangladesh
Bangladesh's rise as a middle-power maritime nation depends mainly on four transformations:
Maritime capacity and Blue Economy development
The landmark maritime verdicts of 2012–2014 unlocked vast zones for fisheries, hydrocarbons, and mineral exploration. Capitalising on these requires strengthened MDA, naval modernisation, and partnerships with Japan, the U.S., India, and Europe.
Securing sea lines of communication (SLOCs)
Bangladesh is in proximity to the Indo-Pacific's "crescent of vulnerability" Maintaining open and stable SLOCs is vital to economic survival and requires proactive naval diplomacy.
Harnessing Indo-Pacific economic corridors
To ensure long-term economic resilience and strategic autonomy, Bangladesh must actively participate in the emerging economic corridors that shape Indo-Pacific connectivity. This requires deeper cooperation with Japanese connectivity projects like the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIG-B), which enhance infrastructure, logistics, and industrial growth; South Korea's advanced technological systems, providing opportunities for digital transformation, maritime innovation, and sophisticated manufacturing; and India's expanding logistics and economic integration frameworks, which are transforming subregional connectivity through multimodal transport and energy networks.
At the same time, Bangladesh should stay connected to the Gulf's developing energy infrastructure—its primary source of hydrocarbons and a key destination for Bangladeshi expatriate workers—while leveraging Chinese industrial supply chains to sustain export competitiveness and diversify manufacturing. However, as it navigates these interconnected corridors, Bangladesh must ensure that no single external actor dominates its strategic choices. A balanced, multi-vector approach will strengthen its bargaining power, protect national interests, and position the country as a confident, autonomous participant in the Indo-Pacific economy.
· Developing strategic depth and policy autonomy.
Ali's concept of "calibrated alignment" (2010) is crucial to Bangladesh's pursuit of genuine strategic autonomy in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region. Instead of aligning too closely with any single power—whether regional or extra-regional—Bangladesh should build a diverse network of security, economic, and diplomatic partnerships that reinforce its sovereignty.
Enhancing strategic depth involves strengthening domestic institutions, boosting maritime and defence capabilities, and diversifying economic resilience so that external shocks or pressures cannot easily sway national decisions. Policy autonomy is achieved when Bangladesh can say "yes" or "no" to partners solely based on national interests, not out of structural dependency or subservience.
Essentially, calibrated alignment enables Bangladesh to benefit from all key actors—Australia, Brazil, China, France, India, Japan, KSA, the Gulf, Russia, the United States, Türkiye, ASEAN—while remaining independent, maintaining equidistance, and ensuring its foreign policy remains flexible, driven by national interest, and aligned with its long-term vision out to 2040 and beyond.
The Indo-Pacific and Bangladesh's strategic future
The Indo-Pacific has become the central hub of the global economy, shaping the strategic actions of both regional and extra-regional powers. For Bangladesh, whose prosperity increasingly depends on maritime trade, energy flows, and diverse external partnerships, the Indo-Pacific is no longer a mere geopolitical concept but the very arena where its long-term security and economic future will be determined.
Consequently, Bangladesh's strategic perspective must extend beyond its immediate neighbourhood to include the Bay of Bengal littoral, where maritime stability and blue economy prospects are expanding; ASEAN's manufacturing and technological networks, which offer opportunities for supply-chain integration and export diversification; the Indian Ocean's island states, whose strategic positions and maritime laws are crucial for Bangladesh's sea-lane security and MDA cooperation; and the Gulf's key energy links, essential for meeting Bangladesh's industrial and domestic energy needs.
Engaging these interconnected subregions through a well-balanced approach of diplomacy, maritime capacity-building, infrastructure development, and economic partnerships is therefore vital for strengthening Bangladesh's strategic independence and establishing it as an emerging middle-power actor in the Indo-Pacific.
Continental South Asian diplomacy
Bangladesh can no longer afford the role of a peripheral observer in South Asian geopolitics. It must become an architect—actively shaping the emerging security and economic order of the Bay of Bengal through IORA, BIMSTEC, coordinated maritime exercises, naval diplomacy, and strategic connectivity initiatives. In this broader framework of proactive regional statecraft, a sober, interest-based engagement with Pakistan becomes one element of a wider diversification strategy. This is not about emotional reconciliation; it is about geopolitical realism. By engaging every regional actor through the lens of national interest—neither bound by old grievances nor captive to external pressures—Bangladesh enhances its strategic flexibility and reinforces its position as a confident, sovereign South Asian power.
Reclaiming the future
Bangladesh's long and turbulent history—from the unresolved inequalities of 1947 to the trauma of liberation in 1971, and through subsequent cycles of centralisation, volatility, and contested governance—has shaped a nation uniquely prepared for renewal. The 2024 Monsoon Revolution crystallised a generational demand: a sovereign Bangladesh that thinks independently, makes its own choices, and acts on its behalf. The post-Monsoon moment is therefore more than a political transition—it is a chance to reimagine the state's strategic stance around autonomy, maritime opportunity, and national interest.
To seize this horizon, Bangladesh must summon a deeper form of courage:
The courage to remember history with integrity while refusing to be imprisoned by it; the courage to engage regional powers and neighbours—including Pakistan—with calm rationality rather than inherited emotion; the courage to resist great-power rivalries without retreating into isolation; and the courage to define its Indo-Pacific role not as a bystander, but as a purposeful maritime actor with its own strategic preferences.
Suppose Bangladesh can cultivate calibrated alignment, strengthen maritime capacity, diversify economic corridors, and assert a principled yet flexible foreign policy. In that case, it will no longer be regarded solely as a geopolitical crossroads for competition. Instead, it will evolve into a rising middle power capable of shaping the Bay of Bengal, influencing Indo-Pacific dynamics, and securing prosperity and dignity for its future generations.
To reclaim the future is to take action—and Bangladesh, now in the post-Monsoon revolution, stands more ready than ever to do exactly that.
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