“National interest is a pretty slippery thing.” — Prof. P. H. Liotta, U.S. Naval War College.

Bangladesh today stands at the crossroads of shifting global currents, where geopolitical rivalries intersect with fragile economic dependencies, viral disinformation clashes with genuine security concerns, and opportunities coexist with risks. At the core of this complex landscape, one fact remains constant: the Bangladesh Armed Forces are the ultimate guarantor of national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and stability.

They are not just tools of defense but also the protectors of the nation’s independence, the shield against external pressures, and the foundation of Bangladesh’s maritime goals. During turbulent times, when rumors spread about alliances, corridors, or territorial deals, the Armed Forces stand firm: Bangladesh’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.

Against this backdrop, the doctrine of strategic equidistance—engaging all but aligning with none—provides Dhaka with the best way to advance its national interests. But equidistance is not drifting; it is discipline. It requires Bangladesh to act with clarity, patience, and, above all, a maritime focus—because the sea is both its frontier of climatic vulnerability and its horizon of economic opportunity.

National Interest: Anchored in the Armed Forces and the Sea

National interests may have many shades of colours, many mentors, can even be debated in classrooms and conferences, but in practice, it boils down to survival, security, and prosperity. For Bangladesh, these converge on three anchors:

1. The Strategic Leadership – The guardians of the nation to rise above petty political interests to lead without compromising national interests.

2. The Armed Forces – The shield that ensures the nation’s choices remain sovereign, not dictated.

3. The Maritime Domain – The stage where Bangladesh’s next phase of economic growth and geopolitical relevance will unfold.

Bangladesh’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), established through UNCLOS arbitration, is abundant in fisheries, energy resources, and sea routes that connect Bangladesh to the rest of the world, making all other countries its neighbors. The Bay of Bengal is no longer an overlooked area; it has become a strategic region where the Indo-Pacific strategies of major powers converge. Protecting this area requires naval vigilance, spatial planning, domain awareness, and deterrence capabilities—all of which depend on the Armed Forces, especially the Navy.

Thus, when policymakers discuss “strategic equidistance,” it should not be mistaken for neutrality caused by weakness. It is a deliberate move backed by a credible defense capability.

Reality Checks

Reality Check 1: The viral Hillary Clinton clip

A video claiming to show Hillary Clinton making an anti-India statement has gone viral, with headlines like “Game Over for India?” However, as Reuters and AFP confirm, no such remarks appear in any recent records. Many such clips are edited and manipulated to elicit a response.

The lessons for the national leadership are pretty straightforward: policies should not be swayed by propaganda. National strategic planning, maintenance of internal cohesion, and external connections, as well as military deployments, maritime operations, and even alliance postures, must not be driven by social-media noise. Strategic patience involves making decisions based on research studies, authentic sources, intelligence, and verified facts, not manipulated sound bites.

Reality Check 2: The U.S.–India tariff fight—an economic tremor with security undertones

Washington has levied tariffs on Indian exports—some as high as 50 percent—while investigating solar imports passing through India. New Delhi resists, Washington warns of disruption, and global supply chains shake.

For Bangladesh, the likely implications are threefold:

Trade spillovers: New orders might move to Bangladesh, but volatility persists.

Investment calculus: U.S. “de-risking” presents opportunities for Dhaka if it demonstrates reliability.

Diplomatic Bandwidth: When two strategic partners quarrel, Bangladesh’s room for maneuver becomes increasingly limited.

The importance of the Armed Forces? Economic stability underpins security. A weak economy hampers defense modernization. Therefore, economic foresight and trade agility are integral to national security—they are vital for maintaining military readiness.

Reality Check 3: The “Bangladesh–China–Pakistan trilateral” hype

Rumors of a Bangladesh–China–Pakistan axis resurface every few months. In reality, Bangladesh has signed no trilateral pact. Dhaka hedges, balances, and keeps its options open.

The Armed Forces’ doctrine is clear: Alliances must never compromise sovereignty or operational independence. Entering bloc politics risks dragging Bangladesh into conflicts not of its making. The military’s wisdom has always been to maintain defense cooperation with many, while being dependent on none.

Reality Check 4: Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO) and the IPEF question.

The April 2023 IPO highlights priorities, including maritime security, connectivity, economic cooperation, and fostering universal friendship. Bangladesh is not part of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Still, cooperation may develop in areas such as supply chains, green energy, and digital standards, until Bangladesh considers it beneficial to be included in the IPEF.

Here, the Armed Forces are again essential: a credible navy and coast guard ensure trade routes are safe, ports stay reliable, and foreign investors remain confident. Without maritime security, economic systems are vulnerable to collapse.

Reality Check 5: Religious harmony is not a bargaining chip

External actors sometimes speculate about Bangladesh’s religious identity as a tool in regional geopolitics. However, the reality is that Bangladeshi citizens, regardless of their faith, live together in harmony. There is no credible evidence that so-called extremists systematically threaten religious minorities. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, making it virtually impossible for organized terrorist groups to stay hidden.

Islam, the faith of the majority, does not promote extremism; instead, it emphasizes justice, compassion, and peaceful coexistence. Attempts to portray Bangladesh as unsafe for minorities serve political agendas outside the country, not actual conditions. Assam’s Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma recently told reporters that “in the last one month, not a single Hindu person has been detected trying to enter India from Bangladesh,”— a statement that indirectly acknowledges that Hindus in Bangladesh remain secure and equal citizens.

Such biased narratives, often amplified for domestic politics, should always be verified before being circulated on social media. Bangladesh must remain vigilant against these distortions. The Armed Forces’ unwavering commitment to defending all citizens, regardless of religion, is a cornerstone of national unity, and religious identity must never be treated as a bargaining chip in external power games.

Reality Check 6: Leasing St. Martin’s Island—the sovereignty red line

Rumors that Bangladesh might lease St. Martin’s Island to a superpower occasionally reemerge, but they are unfounded. The government and the Armed Forces have always rejected any idea of ceding or leasing territory.

St. Martin’s is not for sale or rent—it is a strategic and ecological national pearl. Rather than militarizing or internationalizing it, Dhaka can pursue eco-tourism, marine conservation, and dual-use infrastructure under its own sovereign control. The Navy’s visible presence there is itself a signal: Bangladesh defends what is hers.

Reality Check 7: The “UN corridor with Myanmar” illusion. Speculation about a so-called “UN corridor” with Myanmar has increased lately, but both Dhaka and Naypyidaw have strongly denied any such plan. National Security Adviser Dr. Khalilur Rahman has clearly stated that Bangladesh “has not talked to anyone about the corridor and will not talk about it.” Meanwhile, the UN Resident Coordinator explained that creating such a mechanism would require a legal agreement between the two sovereign nations—a step that has not even begun. For Bangladesh, the role of the Armed Forces remains essential: safeguarding the Naaf River border and preventing any external entity from controlling the national borders. Confidence-building efforts, such as UN-supported repatriation projects or development partnerships, are realistic; however, the illusion of a humanitarian corridor should not obscure the need for military vigilance.

For Bangladesh, sovereignty and security come first—the Armed Forces remain the ultimate guarantor, and no external corridor can replace domestic vigilance.

Strategic Alignment: Equidistance with Discipline Bangladesh’s path forward rests on five disciplined principles:

Institutionalize an Equidistance Test. Create a National Interest Test (NIT) for major foreign or economic decisions: Does it enhance export earnings, energy security, or maritime resilience over 5–10 years? If not, decline. Apply the NIT before joining blocs, signing alliances, or forming defense pacts.

Functional IPO–IPEF Alignment. Negotiate, if in line with national interests, mini-deals with IPEF members—on traceability, clean energy logistics, and digital trade rules—until attaining formal bloc membership. And that membership must also pass the NIT test as mentioned above. This extracts benefits while preserving equidistance.

Prudent Use of Tariff Turbulence. Capitalize on U.S.–India trade frictions only if Bangladesh can guarantee compliance and punctuality. Half-promises will backfire. Pilot deals on standards and certifications can build credibility.

Depoliticize maritime cooperation. Use the IPO to launch public-goods initiatives in the Bay of Bengal: joint search and rescue, piracy intelligence sharing, IUU fishing crackdowns, and oceanographic research. These efforts position Bangladesh as a responsible maritime steward.

Narrative Discipline. When rumors surface—about trilaterals, leases, or corridors—the government must respond with facts, supported by the credibility of the Armed Forces. Publishing MoU trackers by country and sector would weaken bloc-casting narratives.

Bottom Line: National Interest with Armed Forces at the Helm

In this fractured world, Bangladesh’s survival and prosperity depend on fact-based agility and maritime foresight. Viral videos, tariff theatrics, and rumor-driven narratives should not influence the national direction.

The Armed Forces remain the backbone, deterring threats, defending sovereignty, and fostering an environment that supports economic growth. However, they cannot act alone without society's support.

Equidistance isn't passivity; it's the disciplined pursuit of advantage. With patience, vigilance, and a clear maritime focus, Bangladesh can turn its vulnerabilities into strengths.

As Professor Liotta warned, national interest may be slippery—but with the Armed Forces anchoring sovereignty and the Bay of Bengal opening prosperity, Bangladesh has the grip to hold firm.


Writer: Commodore Syed Misbah Uddin Ahmad, (C), NUP, ndc, afwc, psc, BN (retd), Director General, Bangladesh Institute of Maritime Research and Development (BIMRAD). Email: misbah28686@gmail.com