"Civilizations fall not from the walls around them, but from the weakness within."

—Ibn Khaldun, Muqaddimah (1967)

Post-monsoon Bangladesh finds itself at a vital strategic crossroads. Policymakers, academics, and military strategists are increasingly debating whether the country needs a formal National Security Strategy (NSS) or if existing frameworks – the Constitution, military manuals, or fragmented sectoral policies – are sufficient. Ibn Khaldun's warning is not only timely but also foreboding: internal cohesion, foresight, and unity of purpose are far more critical than mere formal structures. Without a clear strategy, Bangladesh risks strategic drift, unpreparedness for emerging threats, and failure to fully harness its national, military, maritime, and geopolitical potential.

What Is not a security strategy

The Constitution is not a strategy

The Constitution of Bangladesh (2011) establishes the principles of sovereignty, the role of the armed forces, and wartime duties. While legally foundational, as Lawrence Freedman (2013) notes, strategy is "the art of creating power," not just codifying authority. Constitutions confer legitimacy; they do not automatically build national power, anticipate emerging threats, or ensure operational coherence. Herodotus' Histories illustrates how empires that rely solely on laws and customs weaken when internal cohesion is lacking.

The war manual is not a strategy

Many democracies around the world develop war manuals, defense white papers, and similar documents as contingency plans. Bangladesh's post-independence war manual – or the guidance from the Ministry of Defense, if such a document exists – also aims to define the roles of the Ministry of Defense and other agencies during conflict. These documents are mainly tactical and reactive, and they cannot accurately anticipate peacetime security challenges or hybrid threats. Ahmed (2018) warns of the dangers of relying on reactive measures rather than a proactive strategy. Thucydides' account of Athens shows that tactical brilliance without strategic coherence leads to failure. Vego (2009) emphasises that an effective strategy must align objectives, methods, and resources across all levels of warfare – something a document like a war manual alone cannot achieve.

Sectoral policies are not a strategy

Bangladesh has a series of five-year strategic plans and policies across defense, foreign affairs, ICT, cybersecurity, climate, and trade. Buzan and Hansen (2009) argue that issue-specific policies cannot replace strategic integration. Ibn Khaldun's concept of 'asabiyyah' warns that fragmented institutional plans invite collapse. Independent policies, without overall coordination, cannot guide the nation toward unified national security.

The absence of strategy cannot be a strategy

Some argue that Bangladesh's relatively low-threat environment makes a formal NSS unnecessary. Rashid (2020) counters that Indo-Pacific militarisation, climate change, and hybrid threats make complacency dangerous. John Lewis Gaddis (2009) reminds us that strategy links limitless goals with limited resources amid uncertainty. Likewise, Sun Tzu warns that it is not enough to assume the enemy will not come; preparation is vital (Sun Tzu, 1963). Relying on the absence of a strategy signifies unpreparedness.

What is a security strategy?

Defining a strategy

Clausewitz, as interpreted by Paret (1986), defines strategy as the use of engagements to achieve political objectives. Freedman (2013) extends this to include all instruments of national power. Vego (2009) emphasises strategic coherence across tactical, operational, and strategic levels. For Bangladesh, a credible NSS must articulate ends (national interests), ways (methods), and means (resources).

2. National power framework: The MIDLIFE construct

A credible and future-ready NSS must synchronise the full spectrum of national power through, for instance, the MIDLIFE framework:

  • Military power: Strengthening conventional and asymmetric capabilities, boosting strategic deterrence, integrating autonomous and AI-enabled systems, and ensuring joint force modernisation to defend national sovereignty.
  • Informational power: Counter disinformation campaigns, promote positive national narratives on regional rights and maritime jurisdictions, and enhance cyber situational awareness to protect the digital domain.
  • Diplomatic power: Engaging in proactive and balanced diplomacy—focusing on building long-lasting partnerships with Afghanistan, India, China, Pakistan, the United States, and other friendly nations—based on mutual benefit, cooperation, and advancing national interests.
  • Legal power: Building and using strong legal frameworks for transboundary rivers, maritime rights under UNCLOS, cybersecurity governance, and emerging areas like space and data sovereignty.
  • Industrial/Scientific Power: Advancing indigenous research and innovation in maritime domain awareness, climate science, military technology, and geo-spatial intelligence to maintain a competitive edge.
  • Financial/Economic power: Protecting Sea lines of communication, growing the blue economy, securing vital energy and port infrastructure, and building resilient trade and investment systems crucial for sustainable growth.

This MIDLIFE or similar approach ensures Bangladesh's national security posture remains comprehensive, resilient, and strategically adaptable in an increasingly complex Indo-Pacific environment.

3. Levels of war and conflict

A comprehensive NSS connects strategic, military-strategic, operational, and tactical levels, while balancing political, military, socio-economic, informational, and technological domains. Joint planning prevents the Athens scenario of tactical success but strategic failure. Bangladesh's maritime interests—sea lanes, offshore resources, port security—highlight the need for joint civil-military planning (Khurshid 2021).

4. AI, cyber, and emerging threats

National security in the 21st century goes beyond land, sea, and air. Cyber operations, AI-driven logistics, predictive analytics for maritime security, and infrastructure resilience are now integral to the strategy. As mentioned earlier, PMESS or MIDLIFE frameworks help integrate these elements into policy. A fragmented or just paper-based approach risks leaving Bangladesh vulnerable to asymmetric, hybrid, or technological threats.

5. Maritime imperatives

Bangladesh's maritime domain, including a 118,813 km² EEZ and extensive deltaic waterways, calls for an integrated maritime strategy. Naval modernisation, coastal resilience, harnessing the blue economy, and cross-border maritime cooperation must serve as the foundation of national security (Ahmad 2025). Failing to incorporate maritime considerations risks losing influence in the Indo-Pacific and diminishing economic potential.

Policy recommendations

  • Develop a formal NSS that integrates all domains of national power, with clear articulation of ends, ways, and means.
  • Adopt multi-domain frameworks like MIDLIFE or PMESS to include cyber, AI, and maritime security explicitly.
  • Institutionalise joint civil-military coordination to ensure that defense, foreign policy, economy, and information operations are aligned.
  • Prioritise maritime and climate resilience by connecting the blue economy, offshore energy, and disaster management.
  • Implement strategic foresight methods, such as horizon scanning, scenario planning, and AI-powered predictive analytics.

Conclusion

Can Bangladesh afford to be vague in its strategic approach? While constitutions, military doctrines, and sectoral policies are important, they do not replace the need for a comprehensive strategy. A credible NSS must unite national power across all domains, anticipate emerging threats, and leverage maritime and technological opportunities. As Ibn Khaldun reminds us, internal cohesion and foresight are crucial for survival and growth. Today, Bangladesh has the opportunity and capacity to develop a strategy that not only responds but also anticipates, shapes, and secures its future in the Indo-Pacific century. Bangladesh's security depends not on the absence of threats but on preparedness, foresight, and internal unity.

 

Writer: Commodore Syed Misbah Uddin Ahmad, (C), NUP, ndc, afwc, psc, BN (retd), Director General, Bangladesh Institute of Maritime Research and Development (BIMRAD). Email: misbah28686@gmail.com